Polytrack Investments Advancing Rapidly

Arlington Park Opens 2007 Meeting on new Polytrack Surface

Installation of the new track surface is nearing completion.Arlington will be the first track to open with a new polytrack surface in April of this year. The surface material will be locally produced in Troy, IL and is being shipped to the track for application this month. Arlington track president Roy Arnold is proud of their investment, estimated at $10 million dollars. His comments from a recent CDI press release.

“The specific mixture of the Polytrack surface that we’ve selected has been tested at Keeneland in one of the nation’s premier race meets involving many of the best horses in the country,” added Arnold. “There have been outstanding results with no significant maintenance issues and consistent praise from the horsemen.
“With this decision, we expect to improve our quality of racing with more fit, healthier horses and by attracting more trainers with better horses, including horsemen from Keeneland who want to run their horses on Polytrack at Arlington Park too,” said Arnold.

The polytrack investment with Keeneland represents a continuing tradition of longstanding cooperative agreements between the Keeneland Racing Association and The Duchossois family as owners of Arlington Park. This partnership has helped maintain the longstanding Chicago area meeting as one of the top Graded Stakes destinations in the world. Tenatively scheduled to open for training on April 25th, the midwest racing circut is clearly embracing polytrack conversions sooner rather than later.

Not to be out done, California is impressively moving to the modern surface. Polytrack made it's west coast debut at Hollywood Park in November 2006 with 229 poly races over the course of their meeting. The Del Mar Turf Club is documenting their installation of polytrack with a photo journal hosted on their website and from a Live Cam link so you can watch them install the surface to make sure it is up to your standards. If you want to learn more about the polytrack surface, what it is and why it is different than a regular dirt surface, the Del Mar links will provide a visual picture that make sure you know how these tracks are built. Del Mar racing over the new track begins in mid July. Thanks to everyone associated with the Turf Club for providing such an extensive record of your track installation. You have helped greatly to educate all North American horse racing fans.

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Thorostats Par Time Updates

Getting up to speed - We have changed the class level charts for all tracks. These adjustments are a universal shifting of the class level charts for ALL TRACKS to establish a new top level and a defined bottom level of class. All Grade I and Grade II stakes levels are now set at a top class level of 112 and 111 respectively. Grade III stakes will all have a class level of 110 or 109 based on the average purse value(APV) for MSW races at the track. All MSW, allowance, classified and minor stakes have been lowered 3 points across the board for ALL TRACKS. The claiming class levels are all lower by 1 point across the claiming classes for ALL TRACKS. Maiden claiming races are now set at the same class level as the 2K claiming class. These steps establish the top and bottom reference for all future adjustments.

The early results of the adjustments have provided a much smoother relationship for the speed figures and power ratings both between classes at the same track and the shipping runners rated from a different track than todays race. The road gets more treacherous as we proceede. Tony and I have agreed on a formula to narrow the selction of races used to make the 100 class par time for all dirt and poly surfaces. We began thorostats pars with a broad collection of claiming races to acquire all distances and establish class levels between tracks. It is a solid general method for making pars that has served us well. The improved par and class tool will allow us to select the races used to make and apply the par times to the selections and ratings. One major benefit this set of tools will provide to our users is the knowledge that Thorostats speed ratings are attended to actively and are based on the latest information available.

Par times for every track are now being adjusted. The general guidelines for races used to make the par is set as follows. Only races under these specific conditions are considered for ALL dirt and polytrack pars.

• FAST Track
• MALE Horses
• 3YO UP - Older horses ONLY
• Claiming Races ONLY

Races run for a claiming price between 1/2 the tracks' total average purse value and 1/2 the tracks' MSW average purse value will be used to make the par time for class level 100 at all tracks. Our research has shown that this method will yield a par time consistent with the 10K claiming level between all tracks. There are basicly 4 class tiers of tracks when all are grouped together. Top tier tracks host most of the graded stakes and have the top 20% of MSW and total averge purse values. Second level tracks are generally the tracks with average purse values between 20% and 50% of the median for all tracks. Third tier tracks have purse levels in the lower 50% to 80% and the 4th level tracks host mettings with the bottom 20% of average purse values. Most tracks and distances will use races in the 7K to 12K claiming price range. Certain distances and tracks will require using races from a different range of claiming prices but never the lowest levels or highest levels of claiming races will be used for the par.

To proceed with the par time adjustments in an orderly fashion we have decided to begin in a certain order for making the adjustments. To start with the year round race meetings were used to conduct the race collection research. Without a break in racing it is a perfect place to start and gauge the effect of any changes being made. The par times are now altered for the following tracks that are currently running with the addition of Deleware Park. The par times for these tracks were applied Monday, March 12th.

• Charles Town
• Mountaineer
• Philadelphia Park
• Penn National
• Deleware Park
• Turfway Park

The next step was to update all polytrack pars. This put Turfway at the top of the list for changes and is the first polytrack to be adjusted for in our previous update. Par times for Turfway have refelcted Polytrack only races run since Sept. 2005 since last year. The curent par times for Turfway now reflect the newer restricted race collection for all poly track races run there. The following polytrack surfaces all have newly adjusted par times.

• Turfway Park - Sept 2005
• Hollywood Park - Nov 2006
• Keeneland - Oct 2006
• Woodbine - Aug 30, 2006
• Del Mar - July 2007
• Arlington - May 2007

The current Arlington and Del Mar pars will soon be defunct. They will remain as they are for the 2007 meetings and will be adjusted upon their conclusion. This will provide accutrate polytrack speed ratings as the runners ship to other tracks but only on conclusion of the race meeting. California racing should be less affected due to the racing schedule. Arlington runners on the other hand, will find the top poly ship outs trying different tracks before the end of that meeting. Unfortunately all polytrack conversions will need to undergo this period of adjustment. Thorostats is prepared to provide the very latest par time information for ALL of the new Polytrack surface change overs.

To complete the first round of par adjustments, we have updated the par times for the remaining Canadian tracks now on our schedule. The Canadian venues provide an interesting problem that will be a good test of our editable class level solution. Currently the average purse values for all Canadian tracks are being treated as US Dollars. Plans are being finalized to edit the class levels for these tracks and lower the class levels onr tier for each track. For example, Woodbine is now considered a top tier track and we will adjust the class levels to those of a similar second level track. Hastings and Fort Erie will go from a second tier to a third tier track and any of the smaller Canadian tracks will have class levels moved to a fourth tier track. This will have the effect of reducing the average purse value by 20% - 25% for the Canadian to Dollar exchange rate. The following Canadian tracks now use updated par times.

• Woodbine
• Fort Erie
• Hastings Park

Plans are to procede with updating pars for tracks that are not currently running. The order of changes will depend on the opening of each race meeting. The goal is to have updated par times for the opening of each race meeting for the remainder of this year. Tracks curently running will be updated promptly upon their conclusion. This will insure the most timely application of the recent par time adjustments. The process is expected to take two to four weeks. Updates will be available for all interested parties.

Here is the archive of the Arlington dirt track par times as an example of additional information that may be available upon request.

AP Dirt Par

9	AP	3	All	D	5F	22.48	45.69	58.27
10	AP	11	All	D	5.5F	22.36	45.48	57.75	1:04.09
11	AP	444	All	D	6F	22.57	45.76	58.09	1:10.89
12	AP	107	All	D	6.5F	22.28	45.40	1:10.50	1:17.10
13	AP	125	All	D	7F	22.95	46.00	1:10.95	1:23.95
14	AP	2	All	D	7.5F	23.42	45.78	1:09.59	1:28.48
15	AP	422	All	D	1M	23.55	46.57	1:11.42	1:24.38	1:37.34
16	AP	196	All	D	1 1/8 M	24.24	48.48	1:13.13	1:38.74	1:51.81
17	AP	9	All	D	1 3/16 M	24.23	48.46	1:12.54	1:39.47	1:56.58
18	AP	5	All	D	1 1/4 M	24.20	48.40	1:13.00	1:38.60	2:04.64
19	AP	2	All	D	1 1/2 M	25.26	50.51	1:15.49	2:19.66	2:26.48	2:33.30

Thorostats Phase II Update is Complete

***Thorostats Phase II Update is Complete***

Updated Doc Link on Home Page

A complete explaination of Thorostats website and tools is now available. You can access the updated file by clicking the Docs tab on our home page. Look here first if you have questions about using the website or tools. Each area and function is explained in detail and there are several tips included that will help you to get the most out of using our products.

Revamped Forum Area

The forum area will now be limited to registered website users only. In our efforts to provide quality information and share our handicapping knowledge we've decided to restrict access to the Thorostats Handicapper User Group or T.H.U.G. The original posters to the forum have been granted access to THUG as a reward for sharing your ideas and comments with us during the first two stages of development. The main motivation in restricting the user group is to bring a stronger focus to the tools and information we provide and to share ideas with our supporters. If you do not have access to THUG please e-mail to mike@thorostats.com He will be able to accomadate your request based on your support of Thorostats.

Editable Class Control - Editable Par Control - Improved Rating Accuracy

The editable class and par time tables will affect the speed and power ratings. These tables control the reference for making our speed figures. The first adjustments to the tables were made Wenesday morning. These adjustments are a universal shifting of the class level charts for ALL TRACKS to establish a new top level and a defined bottom level of class.

All Grade I and Grade II stakes levels are now set at a top class level of 112 and 111 respectively. Grade III stakes will all have a class level of 110 or 109 based on the average purse value(APV) for MSW races at the track. All MSW, allowance, classified and minor stakes have been lowered 3 points across the board for ALL TRACKS. The claiming class levels are all lower by 1 point across the claiming classes for ALL TRACKS. Maiden claiming races are now set at the same class level as the 2K claiming class. These steps establish the top and bottom reference for all future adjustments.

One major improvement in the phase two update is the editable par controls. Thorostats will now be able to determine par times for each class level and specific distance at every track. This information will be used make important class level adjustments the will make class to class comparisons more valid than the present method can accomplish. We will now be able to set class levels in line with actual par times for races at a specific condition. One major benefit of this set of tools will provide to our users is the knowledge that Thorostats speed ratings are attended to actively and are based on the latest information available.

ALL changes made to the class and par time charts, from this day forward, will be documented and and shared with members who have access to the class and par charts. This area of the site will be limited to contributing members who have elected to support the class and par time area. We want all users to know that par times will soon be edited and changes applied to all race selection reports. Please direct all inquires and comments on par and class charts in THUG or directly to mike@thorostats.com

Member Dues Interface

Most importantly we have added a member dues interface. Thorostats users will now be requested to contribute monthly dues for access to race day selections and ratings. We have kept Thorostats freely open for the first phases of development in order to let people become familiar with our website and handicapping tools. As our investment in the project has reached substantial levels we have advanced our method to a point where where we percieve greater value in the ratings we will produce. This leads to a point of diminishing returns on our top rated runners if the selections are freely availabe. Limiting access to contributing members will give us a degree of control in this area.

The second aspect of benefit to members is having your ideas implemented in the final phase of development. All contributing members will be asked for their input on any changes and improvements made for the next stage. Member dues will go to support additional programming of improvements and maintence of hardware for providing you reliable access to Thorostats 365 days a year. We have compiled a significant data base and we want to share our information with members who are active in providing their input and support.



H.O.O.F Report

A new report is currenty being compiled by the programming department. This report will be named The HOOF report. HOOF is an acronym that represents Handicapping On Overall Factors. This report addresses several user suggestions and it is the first stage of our phase III development. The report interface will provide users a look at each field based on factors that the users can select. The out put will show in detail which specific factor or combinations of factors has produced the greatest win percentages and returns on wagers.

Details on the HOOF Report will be released in the near future depending on the progress of development. We hope you are happy with the phase two results and we very much will need your support to take Thorostats to it's original goal of providing high quality handicapping tools and ratings for users of all levels of experience.