Understanding the Hoof report

 

Our latest update of the Hoof report created in Aug 2008 includes many new features. Users now have the ability to turn off the Hoof report,

turn on auto-pilot or define their own settings. We have also included race specific filters which will automatically be set when you click on a

race to process.

 

We've added a new rating called, Confidence value rating "CVR". This rating is a combination of the "win%" and the "impact value" of each factor.

A value of .25 or above is a good starting point for those who wish to define their own settings.

 

The Hoof report was developed for many uses in your handicapping. Create your own tip sheets using factors that you normally would look for

when handicapping a race. Also find which factors are winning their fair share at your track. Do you have a quick handle on pace at your track?

Use the Hoof report to quickly show you which points of call have had an advantage at the current or past meets.

 

The Hoof report has also been designed to work with our selection reports. By assigning points to your chosen factors, a rating is calculated

for each horse and that rating is then added to the Power rating of our selection reports based upon point value you assign. You will have the

ability to change the outcome of your handicapping reports according to the factors you would like to address.

 

Two of my favorite factors are the workout and wide race angles. I strongly consider these factors in a horse if the factor is performing well

at the track.

 

There are 2 types of factors found in the Hoof report, common and individual factors. Common factors in horse racing generally have more than

one horse that qualifies in a given race. This type of factor may have a high Win, Place or Show percentage or even an extremely high ROI. Why?

 

Let's assume we have a race card today with 10 races. In each of those 10 races there are 4 horses per race that qualify for a certain factor.

The winner in each race was 1 of those 4 horses that qualified for this same factor. When we calculate this factor for the day we view it as a factor

that won 100% for the day rather than saying it was winning 25% overall amongst the 4 qualifiers.

 

One of the most asked questions we receive, "Why would you include stats for common factors which might represent higher win, place and

show percentages as well as higher ROI? Simple, using the 4 horse example above if you have a 10 horse field and 4 horses in each race

qualify for a factor that wins 100% of the time, would you not want those 4 horses to be considered?

 

Individual factors will normally have only 1 horse that will qualify for a factor and occasions where 2 horses may qualify. You will find

this type of factor to have lower win percentages and roi's while being more in line with actual winning statistics.

 

Our Hoof report will give you access to information that will help you better understand the Class, Form and Speed of the entries in each race.

Below are some graphic examples of the setup and layout of this report and a sample of the report generated.

 

In the above picture, Hoof Off, you will not see any options listed onscreen,

nor will the Hoof values be included in your selection report. Should you decide

to see report, you may click on the button titled Hoof located inside of your

race selection report. Your report will be processed and displayed, but

will not add any of the values to the race selection report.

 

 

 

 

Here you can see by clicking on Auto setup that a new set of options have

appeared. These options help you to better narrow your search and

results to fit today's race type and conditions.

 

Each time you click on a new race card these options will automatically change.

Clicking on this button will also setup the report for you automatically. Using only

factors that are proving to be solid according to our specifications.

 

 

 

 

By clicking on the "user defined" button you will see even more options

displayed in your window. This gives you control over how the Hoof will

be used in you handicapping process. You control the point assignments

of each factor and control on/off of factors as well. You even setup the

search criteria.

 

 

 

 

The above is a partial view of the weight factors display. Here you can

assign point values to each factor and turn on or off for processing.

Ability to save each tracks profile is also included.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This shot shows a display of your Hoof results after handicapping.

The top 4 horses scoring the most points will be listed as shown above.

Those points are also added to the Power number. By clicking on the

Hoof button shown above you will be directed to the actual Hoof stats

as shown below...

 

 

 

 

In this example I had the hoof set to display any and all factors the horse qualified for.

Therefore any factor displayed above was an attribute the horse qualified for.

 

Here are links that list the factors we use in the Hoof report...

Form factors

Class factors  

Speed/Pace factors

 

Please read our online documentation for further instructions on how to operate the Hoof.

 

 

 

 

                                                                

 

                                                                

Polytrack Investments Advancing Rapidly

Arlington Park Opens 2007 Meeting on new Polytrack Surface

Installation of the new track surface is nearing completion.Arlington will be the first track to open with a new polytrack surface in April of this year. The surface material will be locally produced in Troy, IL and is being shipped to the track for application this month. Arlington track president Roy Arnold is proud of their investment, estimated at $10 million dollars. His comments from a recent CDI press release.

“The specific mixture of the Polytrack surface that we’ve selected has been tested at Keeneland in one of the nation’s premier race meets involving many of the best horses in the country,” added Arnold. “There have been outstanding results with no significant maintenance issues and consistent praise from the horsemen.
“With this decision, we expect to improve our quality of racing with more fit, healthier horses and by attracting more trainers with better horses, including horsemen from Keeneland who want to run their horses on Polytrack at Arlington Park too,” said Arnold.

The polytrack investment with Keeneland represents a continuing tradition of longstanding cooperative agreements between the Keeneland Racing Association and The Duchossois family as owners of Arlington Park. This partnership has helped maintain the longstanding Chicago area meeting as one of the top Graded Stakes destinations in the world. Tenatively scheduled to open for training on April 25th, the midwest racing circut is clearly embracing polytrack conversions sooner rather than later.

Not to be out done, California is impressively moving to the modern surface. Polytrack made it's west coast debut at Hollywood Park in November 2006 with 229 poly races over the course of their meeting. The Del Mar Turf Club is documenting their installation of polytrack with a photo journal hosted on their website and from a Live Cam link so you can watch them install the surface to make sure it is up to your standards. If you want to learn more about the polytrack surface, what it is and why it is different than a regular dirt surface, the Del Mar links will provide a visual picture that make sure you know how these tracks are built. Del Mar racing over the new track begins in mid July. Thanks to everyone associated with the Turf Club for providing such an extensive record of your track installation. You have helped greatly to educate all North American horse racing fans.

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Thorostats Par Time Updates

Getting up to speed - We have changed the class level charts for all tracks. These adjustments are a universal shifting of the class level charts for ALL TRACKS to establish a new top level and a defined bottom level of class. All Grade I and Grade II stakes levels are now set at a top class level of 112 and 111 respectively. Grade III stakes will all have a class level of 110 or 109 based on the average purse value(APV) for MSW races at the track. All MSW, allowance, classified and minor stakes have been lowered 3 points across the board for ALL TRACKS. The claiming class levels are all lower by 1 point across the claiming classes for ALL TRACKS. Maiden claiming races are now set at the same class level as the 2K claiming class. These steps establish the top and bottom reference for all future adjustments.

The early results of the adjustments have provided a much smoother relationship for the speed figures and power ratings both between classes at the same track and the shipping runners rated from a different track than todays race. The road gets more treacherous as we proceede. Tony and I have agreed on a formula to narrow the selction of races used to make the 100 class par time for all dirt and poly surfaces. We began thorostats pars with a broad collection of claiming races to acquire all distances and establish class levels between tracks. It is a solid general method for making pars that has served us well. The improved par and class tool will allow us to select the races used to make and apply the par times to the selections and ratings. One major benefit this set of tools will provide to our users is the knowledge that Thorostats speed ratings are attended to actively and are based on the latest information available.

Par times for every track are now being adjusted. The general guidelines for races used to make the par is set as follows. Only races under these specific conditions are considered for ALL dirt and polytrack pars.

• FAST Track
• MALE Horses
• 3YO UP - Older horses ONLY
• Claiming Races ONLY

Races run for a claiming price between 1/2 the tracks' total average purse value and 1/2 the tracks' MSW average purse value will be used to make the par time for class level 100 at all tracks. Our research has shown that this method will yield a par time consistent with the 10K claiming level between all tracks. There are basicly 4 class tiers of tracks when all are grouped together. Top tier tracks host most of the graded stakes and have the top 20% of MSW and total averge purse values. Second level tracks are generally the tracks with average purse values between 20% and 50% of the median for all tracks. Third tier tracks have purse levels in the lower 50% to 80% and the 4th level tracks host mettings with the bottom 20% of average purse values. Most tracks and distances will use races in the 7K to 12K claiming price range. Certain distances and tracks will require using races from a different range of claiming prices but never the lowest levels or highest levels of claiming races will be used for the par.

To proceed with the par time adjustments in an orderly fashion we have decided to begin in a certain order for making the adjustments. To start with the year round race meetings were used to conduct the race collection research. Without a break in racing it is a perfect place to start and gauge the effect of any changes being made. The par times are now altered for the following tracks that are currently running with the addition of Deleware Park. The par times for these tracks were applied Monday, March 12th.

• Charles Town
• Mountaineer
• Philadelphia Park
• Penn National
• Deleware Park
• Turfway Park

The next step was to update all polytrack pars. This put Turfway at the top of the list for changes and is the first polytrack to be adjusted for in our previous update. Par times for Turfway have refelcted Polytrack only races run since Sept. 2005 since last year. The curent par times for Turfway now reflect the newer restricted race collection for all poly track races run there. The following polytrack surfaces all have newly adjusted par times.

• Turfway Park - Sept 2005
• Hollywood Park - Nov 2006
• Keeneland - Oct 2006
• Woodbine - Aug 30, 2006
• Del Mar - July 2007
• Arlington - May 2007

The current Arlington and Del Mar pars will soon be defunct. They will remain as they are for the 2007 meetings and will be adjusted upon their conclusion. This will provide accutrate polytrack speed ratings as the runners ship to other tracks but only on conclusion of the race meeting. California racing should be less affected due to the racing schedule. Arlington runners on the other hand, will find the top poly ship outs trying different tracks before the end of that meeting. Unfortunately all polytrack conversions will need to undergo this period of adjustment. Thorostats is prepared to provide the very latest par time information for ALL of the new Polytrack surface change overs.

To complete the first round of par adjustments, we have updated the par times for the remaining Canadian tracks now on our schedule. The Canadian venues provide an interesting problem that will be a good test of our editable class level solution. Currently the average purse values for all Canadian tracks are being treated as US Dollars. Plans are being finalized to edit the class levels for these tracks and lower the class levels onr tier for each track. For example, Woodbine is now considered a top tier track and we will adjust the class levels to those of a similar second level track. Hastings and Fort Erie will go from a second tier to a third tier track and any of the smaller Canadian tracks will have class levels moved to a fourth tier track. This will have the effect of reducing the average purse value by 20% - 25% for the Canadian to Dollar exchange rate. The following Canadian tracks now use updated par times.

• Woodbine
• Fort Erie
• Hastings Park

Plans are to procede with updating pars for tracks that are not currently running. The order of changes will depend on the opening of each race meeting. The goal is to have updated par times for the opening of each race meeting for the remainder of this year. Tracks curently running will be updated promptly upon their conclusion. This will insure the most timely application of the recent par time adjustments. The process is expected to take two to four weeks. Updates will be available for all interested parties.

Here is the archive of the Arlington dirt track par times as an example of additional information that may be available upon request.

AP Dirt Par

9	AP	3	All	D	5F	22.48	45.69	58.27
10	AP	11	All	D	5.5F	22.36	45.48	57.75	1:04.09
11	AP	444	All	D	6F	22.57	45.76	58.09	1:10.89
12	AP	107	All	D	6.5F	22.28	45.40	1:10.50	1:17.10
13	AP	125	All	D	7F	22.95	46.00	1:10.95	1:23.95
14	AP	2	All	D	7.5F	23.42	45.78	1:09.59	1:28.48
15	AP	422	All	D	1M	23.55	46.57	1:11.42	1:24.38	1:37.34
16	AP	196	All	D	1 1/8 M	24.24	48.48	1:13.13	1:38.74	1:51.81
17	AP	9	All	D	1 3/16 M	24.23	48.46	1:12.54	1:39.47	1:56.58
18	AP	5	All	D	1 1/4 M	24.20	48.40	1:13.00	1:38.60	2:04.64
19	AP	2	All	D	1 1/2 M	25.26	50.51	1:15.49	2:19.66	2:26.48	2:33.30